As the fighters all weighed in before Friday’s Riyadh show, where the final touches are being wrapped up and the stage set… here’s a deeper look from someone with more intimate knowledge of Francis Ngannou’s MMA background – former UFC fighter-turned-analyst Dan Hardy, assessing his chances of an upset against two-time world champion Anthony Joshua tomorrow night.
Joshua’s change in mindset
Knockout Chaos: Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou
10-round heavyweight main event tomorrow night, ringwalks from 11pm BST
Winner slated to face Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk for undisputed world titles
UNFAIRLY, a lot of the talk has surrounded Anthony Joshua’s chin heading into his fourth boxing fight in 11 months.
Andy Ruiz exposed him in ways many didn’t believe possible during a destructive reign as heavyweight champion and although he earned immediate revenge six months later, has found himself rebuilding in the years since – both from his tendencies and tactics under a series of different coaches and voices.
Here, he enters fight two with Tyson Fury’s old coach Ben Davison and it’ll be interesting to see how things look given the first instalment of their partnership came against someone who had an asterisk next to the ensuing performance.
That’s according to Francis Ngannou’s head coach Dewey Cooper, in an exclusive interview you can read here.
Nonetheless, former UFC welterweight title challenger Dan Hardy stayed away from that and leaned into a different angle during our conversation… starting with this:
Mosope: The Fury-Usyk date has been rebooked and set, Ngannou exceeded expectations in Riyadh before Christmas and now look at what he has in-front of him. What are your thoughts on all this?
Dan: Well, I’ll start by saying this is a much better matchup for Francis. Fury’s a difficult person to read, hit, figure out and open up.
Joshua has a more straightforward boxing skillset by comparison – it’s a tough test for the Brit because of course, Ngannou doesn’t have the surprise factor going into this but instead the confidence of going ten rounds last time out.
What happens if Joshua has a few rough rounds like Fury experienced? Can he get back on the psychological train and keep it together?
MO: Last year they asked [if Ngannou would interest him], he said he was interested in titles and making the most money possible… got criticised for it.
Context: The top of the heavyweight division is split right now. Fury-Usyk has a bilateral rematch clause, #1 IBF contender Filip Hrgovic has been both inactive and boxing poor opposition of late while Zhilei Zhang and former WBO titleholder Joseph Parker are dark horses who’ve emerged without warning in the last twelve months. Now they’re facing one another on this card…
My question is… if Joshua doesn’t perform the way he should, does his stock drop again? Is there a way to feel the way Fury did post-fight, knowing Usyk was in the background… there isn’t that same consolation prize for AJ.
DH: That’s where the pressure and risk comes from, he’s in the process of rebuilding… a loss to Ngannou derails the run he’s on right now. He’s looking good but will fall off a huge cliff if he loses, or even “loses” the same way Fury did…
Huge respect for taking this fight but his job is to do better than Fury, making a claim for that long-anticipated matchup next.
Risk vs. reward, and all that comes with it
MO: Obviously we’ve now heard Turki Alalshaikh’s plan is to match the winners – AJ-Ngannou vs. Fury-Usyk – does that change it even more for Josh now?
DH: I think it does, yeah. AJ’s response was interesting… it’s not about belts or being the world’s best, he’s compartmentalising his process which is a smart thing to do.
Raises the stakes because there’s a lot to gain and lose, if Ngannou can chain punches together… but for me, it doesn’t affect Francis a great deal.
Why do I say that? Well, it’s all bonus material for him anyway. Win and get a shot at undisputed… whereas for Joshua, he expects that of himself to be in that fight at some stage, so it’d push him even further from that target.
MO: Ngannou has often said he wanted to box in the past, the UFC wouldn’t let him and while the PFL granted him that wish, people are now increasingly skeptical he’ll return to the promotion even after inking that lucrative multi-fight deal…
Regardless of the result, where do you see his future there? In terms of the competition, looking forward, he’s getting on a bit in age (37)…
Context: Hardy was announced as the PFL’s Director of Fighter Operations last March, playing a key role in wellbeing and fighter development as well as identifying local talent and working closely on matchmaking decisions.
DH: For sure, you’ve gotta consider age. Heavyweights have a bit more forgiveness – older guys do still rack up some success, so I’m expecting we’ll get a few more fights out of him but it seems like he has a responsibility in his mind.
That’s because the MMA fans got him in this position, he believes he must return there to reward them for their support and patience. There’s no rush from me.
If he does well and gets another opportunity or wins and gets the undisputed fight, I’m more in support of him continuing that then getting him back afterwards. He can do both. He’s the MMA flagbearer and doing incredible things, just generally, for the sport. I expect though, he’ll make his PFL debut in the next 12-18 months.
Knockout Chaos card and weights in full
Main card
Headliner: Anthony Joshua (252.4lbs) vs. Francis Ngannou (272.6lbs), 10 rounds
Co-main: Zhilei Zhang (c, 291.6) vs. Joseph Parker (247.6) for WBO interim world heavyweight title
Rey Vargas (c, 125lbs) vs. Nick Ball (126lbs) for WBC world featherweight title
Israil Madrimov (153.6lbs) vs. Magomed Kurbanov (153.6lbs) for vacant WBA world light-middleweight title
Lightweight: Mark Chamberlain (134.6lbs) vs. Gavin Gwynne (134.6lbs)
Undercard
10 rounds
Heavyweight: Justis Huni (243.2lbs) vs. Kevin Lerena (232.4lbs)
WBC Silver light-middleweight title eliminator: Jack McGann (153.4lbs) vs. Louis Greene (153.2lbs)
Heavyweight, 8 rounds: Andrii Novytskyi (239.4lbs) vs. Juan Torres (255.6lbs)
Light-welterweight, 6 rounds: Ziyad Almaayouf (144.4lbs) vs. Christian Lopez Flores (142lbs)
Heavyweight, 4 rounds: Roman Fury (224lbs) vs. Martin Svarc (225.6lbs)
Picture source: Getty Images, quotes procured by me
Mo and Sports 