World no. 1 Novak Djokovic looks to make more history at the Major where he’s been most successful during his illustrious career, while Aryna Sabalenka returns to the scene of her career-best achievement twelve months ago knowing no woman has successfully defended their title since Serena Williams in 2014. Judging by the draws, completed yesterday, it’s easy to see why.
Injury update: Two-time champion Nadal (hip) out again
- 22-time Major champion Rafael Nadal announced he’d return to Spain for treatment on a new hip injury sustained in three-set loss by Australia’s Jordan Thompson in Brisbane last Friday, three matches into his return
- 37-year-old has said 2024 may be his final year on tour but with reported three-month recovery timeline, could be set to return for the clay court season – with Roland Garros welcoming their dominant champ again
- Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova (hip) doubtful after withdrawing from Adelaide last week, while 2023 runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas (back) also one to monitor as lingering issue still giving him pain
- US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova (wrist), two-time semifinalist Madison Keys (shoulder), 2021 semifinalist Aslan Karatsev (knee), 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu (back) among notable absentees
2009 and 2022 Australian Open titlist Rafael Nadal confirmed the unfortunate news on social media last week that his latest injury return was short-lived, having relinquished a trio of match points during defeat by Jordan Thompson in Brisbane.
It marks a career-high fourth consecutive Grand Slam the Spaniard won’t feature in, adding further weight to the sense of resignation this will be his final full year on tour.
He turns 38 in the middle of Roland Garros and that’s the last Major he won two seasons ago, pushing his body behind-the-scenes to limits he’s already acknowledged won’t happen again. It’ll be interesting to see if his body holds up, should the Spaniard fully recover in time for the clay swing in April as expected.
Point to prove
2017 Australian Open semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov doesn’t just hold the longest active streak of Major appearances (51), he enters Melbourne Park with excellent form punctuated by a first ATP title since 2017 after beating Holger Rune (7-6, 6-4) in Brisbane last week – picking up where he left off in the latter part of last year.
The 13th seed finds himself in an unenviable section of the draw featuring two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev and more besides, but it’s a stress test the 32-year-old will bullishly welcome. Whether he stands tall into the second week remains to be seen.
Elsewhere in the same vein, three-time Major finalist Casper Ruud [11] looks to improve upon a career-best round four finish (2021), having endured an inconsistent 2023 season littered with early tournament exits as his struggles persisted and critics became desensitised to surprise defeats against lower-ranked players.
The 25-year-old is in the section directly below Dimitrov, alongside Olympic champion Alexander Zverev [6], last year’s breakthrough youngster Jiri Lehecka [32] and British number one Cameron Norrie [19] – again treading carefully in prep for a difficult draw, having withdrawn from Auckland with a wrist complaint.
Djokovic’s first-round opponent is Croatian teenage qualifier Dino Prizmic, said to have idolised the Serbian as a child and credited him with the 18-year-old’s love for tennis, with conditions and a fearlessness that sets up an interesting watch on Rod Laver Arena should he manage to match the defending champion double his age.
Having had his 43-match winning streak in Australia ended by Alex de Minaur last week, it’ll be interesting to see how the world no. 1 navigates through the opening rounds – especially given he’ll be managing an existing right wrist injury that flared up in one of his practice sessions and worsened against Lehecka and de Minaur.
Brit watch
Bad injury luck and inconsistency have played against Great Britain once more as two unseeded British players at diferent stages of their careers find themselves in the same section for the third Major running, as Jack Draper and Dan Evans feature in what most observers will describe the Carlos Alcaraz part of the draw.
Jack Draper turned 22 three days before Christmas and has been high as world no. 38 – just outside the seeded positions – where Evans coincidentally sits currently after hamstring and calf injuries hampered most of 2023 for the 33-year-old veteran.
Despite top-10 potential and doing plenty to lessen those injuries, Draper has often been sidelined with muscular setbacks though finished last season strong: reaching two finals (Orleans, Sofia) and winning the Bergamo challenger in November.
Evans’ career-best Major achievement was a fourth-round finish in 2017, something he hasn’t bettered at any of the three other Slam tournaments since.
While Alcaraz gets his fortnight underway against French veteran Richard Gasquet, the 33-year-old will hope to snap the 0-2 H2H streak with Lorenzo Sonego on the other side of the net up first.
Former world no. 1 Andy Murray finds himself in a section with familiar faces and similarly will be hoping to set up a long-awaited clash against defending champion Djokovic, though Tomas Martin Etcheverry [30] isn’t a kind opening-round matchup.
Fellow three-time Slam champion Stan Wawrinka and Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut, who ended Murray’s memorable run in round three last year, also feature.
First-round matches to watch
Matteo Berrettini vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas [7]
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Ben Shelton [16]
Felix Auger-Aliassime [27] vs. Dominic Thiem
Frances Tiafoe [17] vs. Borna Coric
Adrian Mannarino [20] vs. Stan Wawrinka
Grigor Dimitrov [13] vs. Marton Fucsovics
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jan-Lennard Struff [24]
Dan Evans vs. Lorenzo Sonego
A women’s draw packed with intrigue
- Six former AO champions feature across a main draw packed with depth, a tournament first: Naomi Osaka, Sofia Kenin, Caroline Wozniacki, Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka and defending titlist Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka could’ve completed the full Grand Slam sweep in 2023, and yet, those painful disappointments will be spurring her onto greater things this year.
That’s the mindset for a nine-year veteran who knows how to pace herself over a two-week Slam, though clutching up when tight matches are headed her way remains a question mark she’ll look to assertively answer when defending this title.
Unlike her good friend Novak Djokovic in the men’s draw, the fear factor – and comparative depth – isn’t at a level where she’s separated herself from the pack.
Last year’s finalist Elena Rybakina figures as one of a cluster of top-ranked players (Swiatek, Gauff, Jabeur) capable of disrupting the Belarusian’s game and force mistakes or pounce on a sluggish start. The best-of-three format doesn’t allow as much scope for recovery wins, meaning pressure points almost count for double.
In a section packed with intriguing R1 ties featuring Donna Vekic [21], Liudmila Samsonova [13] and a friendly face in former world no. 2 Paula Badosa, Sabalenka could face qualifiers in the first two rounds but has her work cut out while both Jabeur and Barbora Krejcikova [9] will fancy winning the section directly above.
The Swiatek element
Ah yes, the world number one. There’s been so much noise about most of the usual core group not including her, largely because it’s a hard-court event that has eluded the Pole’s grasp in recent seasons.
Anett Kontaveit (2020), Simona Halep (2021), Danielle Collins (2022) and Jelena Ostapenko (2023) represent a quartet with varying skills and weapons to upset the 22-year-old’s rhythm so while you can unpick individual results trying to find flaws, the women’s draw is so deep that virtually anyone can win (or lose) on any given day.
That unpredictability doesn’t favour Swiatek’s chances of a deep run, especially in a section with Wimbledon semifinalist Elina Svitolina – who beat her along the way – while Ostapenko and Marketa Vondrousova are among those hungry sharks looking to eat away at any sign of weakness in the section directly below.
When she’s firing on all cylinders, very few can match her level. Whether she’ll continue where she left off in United Cup play and sustain it as the pressure inevitably builds is unclear, starting with 2020 champion Sofia Kenin.
Osaka’s tough return befitting of a champion
Four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka hasn’t exactly been fortunate with this year’s draw, but said all the right things in her news conference this week to suggest that early adversity might be a blessing in disguise after all.
1-1 in her return to tour-level competition, she had her opportunities but lacked steely conviction and composure in key moments during a three-set defeat by Karolina Pliskova last week.
The belief is that through more match play, muscle memory and confidence will flow to a point where she’ll soon be winning tough battles with minimal fuss. With that previous sentence in mind…
It doesn’t get much trickier than 2022 WTA Finals champion Caroline Garcia in the early rounds of a Major, something Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez – US Open 2021 champion and runner-up can attest.
The last time the pair met under similar circumstances, Osaka dropped just five games (6-2, 6-3) and ultimately went all the way that fortnight to win the title.
Three years later, she returns under different conditions after a 15-month hiatus and while it’s encouraging to hear how much the 26-year-old missed tennis during maternity leave, we’ll know more once experiencing challenges like these as a packed schedule should see the former world no. 1 quickly rise back up the rankings.
A potential third-round meeting with US Open champion Coco Gauff presents itself as appointment viewing, whoever wins this matchup.
Gauff got it going on
This Major marks first-time Grand Slam winner Coco Gauff’s final one as a teenager and while she has insisted doesn’t want to look back, I’ll do it for her.
What a ride it’s been for the charismatic American, who has shown precocious maturity in ways that have and continue to improve her tennis, while enriching women’s tennis with another must-see attraction at a time where there are many.
Successfully defending her Auckland Open title last week was a timely morale boost, especially after navigating through a relentless Svitolina storm in the final and generally finding ways to win across the week-long tournament without playing the best either as the 19-year-old’s serve still flickers between brilliant and stuttering.
A potential third-round matchup against the aforementioned Fernandez [32] has all the makings of a tasty tussle between two young players with exciting gamestyles, but so long as she avoids another early exit ala 2022, she’ll be confident that she can reach the second week and beyond for the first time here. We’ll soon see.
Also, keep an eye out for…
Montreal M1000 champion Jessica Pegula finds herself no longer the top-ranked American woman anymore, though any disappointment about losing such a distinction is softened by the fact it’s being held by her doubles partner Gauff.
Given how she has the upper hand in their H2H battles (3-1) and has strung together a series of victories over other top players, she’ll know that a consistent run of efficient tennis will aid her to breaking that quarterfinal hoodoo once and for all.
In a winnable section of the draw, taking it one match at a time may sound cliche but is the best course of action – same can be said for Emma Raducanu, who could face her in a a fourth-round contest – though US Open quarterfinalist Sorana Cirstea [29] and China’s Qinwen Zheng [12] potentially present themselves as early challenges.
British number one Katie Boulter faces China’s Yue Yuan to kick off her fortnight, before a potential second-round matchup against Zheng beckons and the latter matchup is one where she’d look to lean on a positive United Cup experience.
Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka, former world no. 1 players and previous Australian Open champions, benefit from leaning on fond memories when battling their way through opening rounds, daring to dream about reaching the Saturday summit in week two. They can cause damage, but unlikely either will go deep.
Azarenka shares a section with two other Major champions, while three more – headlined by Swiatek – linger in the one directly above. Wozniacki faces Magda Linette in one of the marquee matches to kickstart the event, a surprise semifinalist twelve months ago and one with ranking points aplenty to defend.
Having ended her memorable 2023 season with defeat by Fernandez in Hong Kong, it’s fair to say Mirra Andreeva – a junior runner-up twelve months ago – will be looking forward to potentially making an even bigger splash this coming year.
A competitive straight-sets quarterfinal defeat by Linda Noskova in Brisbane last week saw her start the new season with a 3-1 record, and she beat 2022 AO finalist Collins in their Kooyong Classic exhibition matchup on Friday afternoon.
She’ll make her maiden main draw appearance vs. Collins’ compatriot Bernarda Pera, with three-time Major finalist Ons Jabeur [6] perhaps next come round two.
Despite winning a WTA 250 event in China at the end of September, the Tunisian endured an iffy finish to 2023 and that matchup has upset potential written all over it, especially considering the way Andreeva takes time away from her opponents and is fearless in ways most shy away from in the early rounds against a high seed.
First-round matches to watch
Iga Swiatek [1] vs. Sofia Kenin
Danielle Collins vs. Angelique Kerber [PR]
Linda Noskova vs. Marie Bouzkova [31]
Elena Rybakina [3] vs. Karolina Pliskova
Magda Linette [20] vs. Caroline Wozniacki [WC]
Linda Fruhvirtova vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia [10]
Caroline Garcia [16] vs. Naomi Osaka [PR]
Luidmila Samsonova [13] vs. Amanda Anisimova [PR]
Taylor Townsend vs. Paula Badosa
Due to the time difference and scheduling conflicts, I won’t be producing daily AO round-ups like recent seasons. Instead, the tennis content will be centred around specific matchups or the story of the day, diving into storylines and more, especially with so much ground to explore and not enough time to do everything justice. Nonetheless, stay tuned to moandsports.com for coverage.
Picture source: Getty Images
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